Clinical features of patients with tibial shaft fractures combined with posterior malleolar fractures and construction of prediction model

LI Xiaoliang; LIU Hongguo; XIA Guofeng; SUN Peifeng

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-3594.2026.06.002

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Medical Journal of the Chinese People Armed Police Forces ›› 2026, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (6) : 466-471. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-3594.2026.06.002

ORIGINAL ARTICLES

Clinical features of patients with tibial shaft fractures combined with posterior malleolar fractures and construction of prediction model

LI Xiaoliang, LIU Hongguo, XIA Guofeng, SUN Peifeng

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Abstract

Objective To analyze the clinical features of patients with tibial shaft fractures combined with posterior malleolar fracture and to constructional model for the fractures. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of the patients with tibial shaft fractures who underwent preoperative X-ray and CT examinations at the 971th Hospital of PLA Navy from January 2019 to December 2024. A total of 167 patients were included in this study, comprising 108 males and 59 females, with a mean age of (46.6±16.2) years.The patients were divided into a combined posterior malleolar fracture group (n=63) and an isolated tibial shaft fracture group (n=104) based on the presence of posterior malleolar fracture on CT mages. Clinical and imaging data were collected. Data on fracture location, length, and morphology were measured using X-ray films and CT images. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for tibial shaft fractures combined with posterior malleolar fractures, and a prediction model was constructed. The predictive results of the diagnostic factors was analyzed using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Results Tibial fracture location (OR=0.913, P=0.001), tibial fracture length (OR=1.154, P<0.001), and spiral tibial fracture (OR=10.202, P=0.002) were independent risk factors for tibial shaft fractures combined with posterior malleolar fractures. A prediction model was established, expressed as logit(P)=-0.091×tibial fracture location+0.143×tibial fracture length+2.323×spiral tibial fracture (yes=1, no=0)-1.193. The ROC curve analysis showed that the prediction model had a higher AUC than each individual factor including tibial fracture location, tibial fracture length, and spiral tibial fracture. Conclusions The prediction model constructed based on tibial fracture location, length, and spiral tibial fracture demonstrates high predictive value for tibial shaft fractures combined with posterior malleolar fractures.

Key words

tibial shaft fracture / posterior malleolar fracture / X-ray film / CT / risk factors / prediction model

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LI Xiaoliang, LIU Hongguo, XIA Guofeng, SUN Peifeng. Clinical features of patients with tibial shaft fractures combined with posterior malleolar fractures and construction of prediction model[J]. Medical Journal of the Chinese People Armed Police Forces. 2026, 37(6): 466-471 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1004-3594.2026.06.002

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