Analysis of risk factors and construction of a nomogram prediction model for early death in patients with exertional heatstroke

WU Shilang; WANG Junxian; RAO Zilan; LI Yixin

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Medical Journal of the Chinese People Armed Police Forces ›› 2025, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (6) : 515-520.

Analysis of risk factors and construction of a nomogram prediction model for early death in patients with exertional heatstroke

WU Shilang¹, WANG Junxian¹, RAO Zilan², LI Yixin¹

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Abstract

Objective To investigate the risk factors of early death in patients with exertional heatstroke and validate a nomogram prediction model. Methods A total of 78 patients diagnosed with exertional heatstroke in No. 910 Hospital of PLA Joint Logistics Support Force from June 2022 to June 2024 were retrospectively included, and they were divided into death group and survival group according to the prognosis. The baseline clinical data of the two groups were compared, and the risk factors of early death were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression. A nomogram prediction model was constructed by R software and its accuracy was verified. Results The incidence of early death among 78 patients with exertional heatstroke was 23.08%（18/78）. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that body temperature was an independent risk factor for early death in patients with exertional heatstroke（OR>1, P<0.05）, while lymphocyte percentage and GCS score were independent protective factors（OR<1, P<0.05）. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram prediction model was 0.902（95%CI 0.850~0.937）, indicating good prediction accuracy. The calibration curve showed good agreement between prediction and observation, and the P-value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was 0.478. Conclusion The nomogram prediction model based on body temperature, lymphocyte percentage and GCS score can accurately predict the risk for early death in patients with exertional heatstroke, and play a role in early identification and improving prognosis.

Key words

exertional heatstroke / early death / risk factors / prediction model / nomogram

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WU Shilang, WANG Junxian, RAO Zilan, LI Yixin. Analysis of risk factors and construction of a nomogram prediction model for early death in patients with exertional heatstroke[J]. Medical Journal of the Chinese People Armed Police Forces. 2025, 36(6): 515-520

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