目的 分析1990-2021年全球及中国下呼吸道感染(LRIs)的疾病负担、可归因风险因素及未来14年的趋势。方法 通过2021年全球疾病负担数据库,分析LRIs所致疾病的发病人数、年龄标准化发病率、死亡人数、年龄标准化死亡率、伤残调整寿命年(DALYs)和年龄标准化DALYs率,通过R 4.3.3软件中BAPC模型对2022-2035年全球及中国LRIs的年龄标准化死亡率、年龄标准化DALYs率进行预测。结果 在2021年,全球LRIs年龄标准化发病率为4283.61/10万,年龄标准化死亡率为28.67/10万,年龄标准化DALYs率为1168.80/10万;中国LRIs年龄标准化发病率为2853.81/10万,年龄标准化死亡率为14.03/10万,年龄标准化 DALYs率为347.67/10万。在全球的全年龄段人群中,LRIs的年龄标准化发病率、死亡率及DALYs率在95+岁群体中最大,但在<5岁患儿中的疾病负担仍不容忽视。与全球疾病发展趋势类似,在2021年,中国的全年龄段人群中,95+岁群体LRIs的年龄标准化发病率、死亡率及DALYs率均为最大。年估计变化百分比结果显示,从1990-2021年,全球及中国LRIs的年龄标准化发病率、死亡率及DALYs率均呈现下降趋势。基于危险因素的分析结果表明,2021年,家庭空气污染、环境颗粒物污染以及儿童发育不良仍然是LRIs患者死亡和DALYs增加的主要危险因素。结论 尽管LRIs的疾病负担在1990-2021年以及2022-2035年的预测中均呈现出下降的趋势,但在60岁及以上的老年群体中疾病的负担仍然较重,应加强对老年人群疾病相关知识的宣传,减少相关风险因素的暴露,以减轻LRIs的疾病负担。
Abstract
Objective To analyze the disease burden, attributable risk factors of LRIs from 1990 to 2021 and the trends of lower respiratory tract infections (LRIs) in China and the world from 1990 to 2021. Methods The Global Burden of Disease database 2021 was used to analyze the number of cases, age-standardized incidence rates, number of death, age-standardized mortality rates, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized DALY rates caused by LRIs. The BAPC model in R 4.3.3 software was used to predict age-standardized mortality rates and age-standardized DALY rates for LRIs in the world and China from 2022 to 2035. Results In 2021, the global age-standardized incidence rate of LRIs was 4283.61 per 100,000, with a mortality rate of 28.67 per 100,000 and a DALYs rate of 1168.80 per 100,000. In China, the age-standardized incidence rate was 2853.81 per 100,000, the mortality rate was 14.03 per 100,000, and the DALYs rate was 347.67 per 100,000. Among all the age groups in the world, the age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates of LRIs were highest in the 95+ age group, and the disease burden in children under five remained significant. Similar trends were found in China, with the oldest age group having the highest rates. The annual estimated percentage change from 1990 to 2021 showed a declining trend in the age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates of LRIs in the world and China from 1990 to 2021. Analysis of risk factors in 2021 indicated that household air pollution, ambient particulate matter pollution, and child malnutrition were major contributors to mortality and increased DALYs for LRIs patients. Conclusions Although the disease burden of LRIs has shown a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2021 and is projected to continue decreasing until 2035, the disease burden remains high in the elderly population of 60+. It is necessary to strengthen e the publicity of disease-related knowledge in the elderly and reduce the exposure to related risk factors, thus mitigating the disease burden of LRIs.
关键词
下呼吸道感染 /
疾病负担 /
危险因素 /
预测
Key words
lower respiratory tract infections /
disease burden /
risk factors /
prediction
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